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Commerzbank expects the dollar to be a tightrope walk in coming months as the Fed adjusts its stance under political pressure. Powell at Jackson Hole emphasized downside economic and labor risks, and weaker data could bring 50bp cuts that weigh on the dollar.
Expected Fed easing and downside dollar risks can support dollar-priced commodities and make imports more affordable for non-US buyers.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.