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U.S. ethanol prices have fallen nearly 20% over two years as production rose and demand weakened amid growth of electric vehicles. Washington is including ethanol in recent trade agreements with the U.K. and Japan to find export outlets for the surplus.
The administration has also opened an investigation into Brazil's 18% tariff on ethanol imports from outside Mercosur.
Surplus ethanol that tracks weak corn prices keeps downward pressure on corn demand and margins for U.S. ethanol plants, while trade-deal pushes could reshape export flows for feed co-products.
valorinternational.globo.comCamila Souza RamosAug 8, 2025After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
