Canola futures in Canada fell more than 8% over four weeks to September 4, narrowing the premium over soybeans. Larger-than-expected global rapeseed and canola supplies are coinciding with China's de facto import ban on Canadian rapeseed and products.
Canadian processors are selling canola meal aggressively in Europe, the US and elsewhere.
Heavier global supply and aggressive Canadian meal exports push canola meal prices lower in export markets, lowering costs for feed buyers.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.