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Republican lawmakers warned that US farmers face financial calamity without additional aid soon. USDA data show federal payments to farmers are expected to exceed $40 billion in 2025, the second-highest since 1933.
That total is driven largely by ad-hoc disaster and economic aid Congress passed last December.
Large government payments cushion farm incomes and can keep acreage and feed-grain output higher than margins alone would support. Any new aid package is a policy factor, not a direct supply shock, so the price effect is modest.
reuters.comBo Erickson, Leah DouglasSep 17, 2025After 1,623 past policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 1,905 past policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.8%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 1,019 past policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
