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McKeany-Flavell's review of the September WASDE found limited domestic wheat changes, with 2025/26 exports raised 25 million bushels to 900 million and U.S. carryout falling to 844 million bushels. World 2025/26 wheat ending stocks were raised 4.0 MMT on higher production from several origins.
Higher world wheat carryout is bearish for global wheat prices, which lowers the cost of wheat used in feed rations.
mckeany-flavell.comInfo DepartmentSep 12, 2025After 1,006 past bearish report events, WHEAT moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 138 past bearish report events, KWHEAT moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
This review confirms the export increase and lower US carryout from the WASDE, though it also notes higher world stocks, which partly offset the bullish read.
