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USDA's September 1 corn stocks came in at 1.532 billion bushels, above expectations, and soybean stocks were slightly tighter than expected. StoneX analyst Craig Turner says the path of least resistance for prices is lower while Argentine exports continue at a zero export tax.
Higher corn carryout raises projected new-crop ending stocks, adding bearish pressure, while Argentine export competition limits soybean and meal upside for buyers.
stonex.comCraig TurnerSep 30, 2025After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 406 past neutral report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
