
Drewry reports that China has suspended purchases of US soybeans in retaliation for US tariffs, so no US soybean cargoes have arrived at Chinese ports this season. Roughly 12-13 million tonnes normally move between September and November, and about 12 million tonnes remains at risk over the next two months.
The lost soybean flows remove a large share of Panamax grain shipping demand, weakening freight rates and sentiment, and reducing US export competitiveness for soybeans.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.