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The American Farm Bureau economist describes US cattle producers finally earning dependable returns after years of losses, with the herd at 86.7 million head on January 1, 2025, the lowest in 74 years. He warns that record production costs and market interventions to lower beef prices could discourage herd rebuilding.
Herd rebuilding would eventually raise feed demand, but interventions that depress cattle prices could stall restocking, weighing on the longer-term outlook for feed grains and byproducts.
fb.orgBernt NelsonOct 29, 2025After 18 past neutral macro events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.6%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 56 past macro events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
