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Canadian canola is effectively shut out of China, which is valued at nearly $5 billion annually, due to a provisional 75.8% anti-dumping duty on seed and 100% tariffs on meal and oil. A final anti-dumping determination is expected by March 9, 2026.
Canadian industry leaders met the Prime Minister in September to press for restoring access as the top priority.
Losing China removes the largest canola export outlet, pushing down Canadian canola prices and forcing export flows to shift to other origins. Continued uncertainty weighs on canola and canola meal values.
canoladigest.caTroy Sherman, Tenesha LawsonOct 30, 2025Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 81 past neutral trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
