Eight OPEC+ countries met virtually on 2 November 2025 and agreed to raise production by 137,000 bpd in December 2025 from the 1.65 million bpd voluntary adjustment. They also paused further increments for January through March 2026 due to seasonality.
The pause in output hikes for early 2026 limits supply growth, providing some support to crude prices despite expected seasonal weakness. Lower crude supports lower energy costs for feed processors, but the effect is modest.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.