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USDA's December Hogs and Pigs report put the December 1 hog inventory at 75.5 million head, up 0.6% year over year and above expectations. The 180-pound-and-over class rose 2.8%, and the September to November pig crop was higher than expected at a record 11.93 pigs per litter.
The breeding herd fell 0.9%, the smallest December 1 breeding herd since 2014.
Heavier hog supplies arriving at packers in early 2026 add near-term downward pressure on hog prices. The small breeding herd limits longer-term supply growth, which keeps the outlook more balanced.
farmdocdaily.illinois.eduLee BynumDec 29, 2025After 159 past bearish report events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
