Oil rises as reports of possible US strikes on Iran raise supply concerns

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• May 17, 2026Oil prices rise 3% to two-week high on Iran war supply concerns | Reuters-5.7%
• Jun 27, 2018Oil rises on supply losses, US push to isolate Iran+2.5%
• Mar 5, 2026Oil settles up around 5% on supply concerns as Iran conflict widens | Reuters+12.3%
• Oct 28, 2026Arab News | Oil rises more than 1% as supply concerns persist-4.7%
• Mar 19, 2024Oil rises to multi-month highs on Russian supply concerns-0.2%

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• May 17, 2026Oil prices rise 3% to two-week high on Iran war supply concerns | Reuters-8.1%
• Jun 27, 2018Oil rises on supply losses, US push to isolate Iran+0.7%
• Mar 5, 2026Oil settles up around 5% on supply concerns as Iran conflict widens | Reuters+16.5%
• Oct 28, 2026Arab News | Oil rises more than 1% as supply concerns persist-2.1%
• Mar 19, 2024Oil rises to multi-month highs on Russian supply concerns-1.3%