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Wood Mackenzie reported a single-day natural gas freeze-off of 17 BCF on January 25, close to the record set during Winter Storm Uri. Current cold-weather production losses are estimated at about 13.5 bcfd, with Lower 48 output near 95.8 bcfd.
Production losses of this size tighten US gas supply and support Henry Hub prices, which raises costs for natural gas-based nitrogen fertilizer and drying.
After 221 past bullish weather events, Natural Gas moved a median +3.3% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -5.2% to +14.0%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.