
Canada is the largest oat exporter, but it ships little raw oat grain to China, which buys mostly from Australia and Russia. China has not approved a phytosanitary protocol for Canadian raw oats, and the issue was not part of the January Carney-Beijing trade agreement.
Continued exclusion from China keeps Canadian raw oat demand limited to other importers, so any approval would be a bullish shift for oat export flows.
After 15 past neutral trade events, Oats moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (27% higher; middle half -2.4% to +2.2%), and +2.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.