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Ukraine's 2025/26 oat production fell to about 360,000 tonnes as sown area shrank, but exports in the first half of the season reached about 40,000 tonnes, the highest in ten years. Turkey and India were the leading buyers.
Strong export demand tightens Ukraine's domestic balance, but record global oat stocks and falling European quotations cap price gains.
After 15 past neutral trade events, OATS moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (27% higher; middle half -2.4% to +2.2%), and +2.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.