
Crude prices rose more than 4% on March 11 as traders weighed attacks on commercial vessels off Iran and Strait of Hormuz disruption. Brent closed at $91.98 and U.S. crude at $87.25, while the IEA agreed to release 400 million barrels from emergency reserves, the largest release in its history.
The record stock release is a major policy response to lost Gulf supply, though it did not offset the tanker risk. Persistent crude strength keeps biofuel feedstock and fertilizer costs elevated for feed buyers.
After 442 past bullish policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.9%), and +2.1% over 20.
After 438 past bullish policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.9% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -2.2% to +4.6%), and +2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.