
Ukraine's oat exports fell 98% in January and February 2026, with only 506 tons shipped in January and 215 tons in February. The drop follows Turkey and India suspending purchases of Ukrainian oats, which together took about 94% of December 2025 shipments.
Losing these import buyers removes a key outlet for Ukrainian oats, which weighs on Black Sea oat export prices and shifts supply toward domestic use. Global oat trade volumes are small, so the effect on feed prices is limited.
After 17 past bearish trade events, Oats moved a median +1.2% over 5 sessions (71% higher; middle half -4.2% to +5.0%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.