
Ukraine's oat exports fell 98% in January-February 2026 compared with the same period in 2025, with only 506 tons shipped in January and 215 tons in February. APK-Inform says Turkey and India, the main buyers, suspended purchases.
Port bid prices have stayed within 8,900-10,500 hryvnias per ton.
Loss of key import demand from Turkey and India leaves Ukrainian oat supplies unsold, which is bearish for Black Sea oat export prices, though stable domestic bids limit the price drop.
After 17 past bearish trade events, Oats moved a median +1.2% over 5 sessions (71% higher; middle half -4.2% to +5.0%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.