
The USDA's January 1, 2026 inventory put the US cattle herd at about 86.2 million head, the smallest in 75 years, and the beef cow count fell about 1% to 27.6 million. Ground beef topped $6.60 per pound, and USDA projects beef and veal prices rising another 9.4% in 2026.
A shrinking herd limits the supply of slaughter and feeder cattle, which supports cattle prices and retail beef prices for the foreseeable future.
After 268 past bullish report events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.4%), and +1.7% over 20.
After 227 past bullish report events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.5%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.