
The Thai baht has weakened more than 4% since the Iran war began in late February, among the worst performers in Asia. MUFG expects the baht to slide to 33.90 per dollar this quarter as Thailand's large net oil-and-gas deficit weighs on the currency.
Continued baht weakness driven by energy import costs raises the local price of imported feed and protein inputs for Thai buyers.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.