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The dollar has shed most of the risk premium it gained from the Iran war, though few expect a sharper decline. Markets had priced two Fed cuts for 2026 but now see one at most, as oil-driven inflation complicates policy.
The unwinding of the safe-haven premium is mildly supportive for dollar-priced commodities, but persistent inflation concerns limit how far the dollar is likely to fall.
reuters.comSaqib AhmedApr 15, 2026After 1,637 past bearish macro events, DXY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
