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OPEC+ is likely to agree a further output target increase of about 188,000 bpd, according to Reuters sources. The move follows the earlier 206,000 bpd hike and excludes the UAE, which leaves the group from May 1.
The UAE exit and a modest quota increase signal a looser cartel policy, which could cap crude prices once Hormuz flows resume. Feed-linked energy and biofuel costs may see slightly bearish pressure over time.
reuters.comAlex Lawler, Dmitry Zhdannikov, Ahmad GhaddarApr 29, 2026After 215 past bearish policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.4% to +3.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 210 past bearish policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -3.8% to +3.2%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
