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Global urea prices fell sharply in May as Brazilian importers shifted to cheaper ammonium sulfate, which Brazil now imports in larger volumes than urea. Urea futures fell to $542.50 per ton on May 21, down 22% from the monthly high.
China has been absent from urea exports through May 2026 under export controls, and its return could add significant downward pressure.
Brazil's substitution toward amsul reduces urea demand and pulls prices lower, while China's possible return with large latent export capacity is the main upside-to-downside risk for nitrogen prices.
fertilizerdaily.comKim ClarksenMay 23, 2026After 81 past bearish trade events, Urea moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (28% higher; middle half -7.2% to +0.4%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Brazil's shift to ammonium sulfate cut urea import demand, and a possible return of Chinese exports added downward pressure, with futures down 22% from the monthly high.
Brazil's shift to ammonium sulfate cut urea import demand and urea futures had already fallen sharply in May, with China's return flagged as further downside pressure.
