
The IEA's May monthly report says oil inventories are being depleted at a record pace because of Hormuz supply losses, which have reached 12.8 million barrels per day since the war began. Brent traded near $107 and the agency expects prices could rise further over the summer, while forecasting demand to contract by 420,000 barrels per day by year-end.
Rapidly falling inventories and a market expected to stay in deficit point to firm energy prices through summer, raising costs for transport, fertilizer and processing.
After 116 past bullish report events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.3% over 5 sessions (66% higher; middle half -1.0% to +3.1%), and +2.0% over 20.
After 131 past bullish report events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.3% to +3.4%), and +2.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.