
Bloomberg reports that Brazil is crushing record volumes of soybeans, but a delay in its biofuel mandate increase has left excess cheap soy oil to be exported. The surplus is flowing into overseas markets at low prices.
The article attributes the situation to the slow pace of domestic biodiesel demand growth.
Surplus Brazilian soy oil exports add pressure to global soy oil prices and reduce the premium for South American cargoes. Continued delay in Brazil's biodiesel blending would keep this downward pressure in place.
After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.