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Soybean futures rose above $11.90 per bushel, moving back toward two-year highs after USDA's first 2026/27 outlook. USDA put US supply at 120.7 million tons, below the roughly 125 million expected.
Global production was projected at a record 441.5 million tons.
Tighter-than-expected US supply projections support prices heading into the new crop year. Strong planting progress limits the upside.
After 747 past bullish report events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.