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Government payments to US farmers are rising, with USDA estimating direct payments of $44 billion in 2026. Those payments could make up more than a quarter of projected net farm income.
Heavy government support keeps farm income cushioned despite weak crop prices, which can sustain production and keep grain supplies ample. This is a structural factor rather than a near-term price shock.
wsj.comPatrick ThomasJun 28, 2026After 1,623 past policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 1,905 past policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.8%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 1,019 past policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
