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Country Guide reports ABARES forecasts Australia's 2026-27 winter crop at 54.5 million tonnes, down 21%, with reductions in all main crops except lentils. Analyst Bruce Burnett says Australia could pose less competition to Canadian growers in Asia and the US.
Forecasters warn of a possible strong El Niño that could dry eastern Australia.
Lower Australian supply would reduce export competition for Canadian grains, supporting Canadian wheat and barley prices. El Niño risk adds upside uncertainty for global supply.
country-guide.caSean PrattJun 5, 2026After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
