
APEDA data show India is broadening its agricultural export base toward processed and value-added products, with 438 HS 8-digit products exported in FY2025-26 versus 298 in FY2014-15. Officials say this reduces reliance on cereals that are often hit by export curbs.
A shift away from rice and wheat toward processed goods reduces the price impact of Indian export bans on cereals, though the effect on near-term grain prices is small.
After 468 past policy events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.0% to +2.0%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 1,019 past policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.