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Commerzbank says Brent will stay volatile and elevated as Middle East tensions and chokepoint disruptions constrain supply. It expects OPEC+ to raise September targets by about 188,000 bpd before pausing, contingent on the Strait of Hormuz staying open.
Sustained elevated crude prices keep energy costs high for feed transport and support vegetable oil and biofuel demand.
octabroker.comJul 31, 2026After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
