
Canadian canola exports reached 305 thousand tonnes in the week ending July 12 and cumulative 2026/27 exports of 8.562 million tonnes already exceed the government's 8.4 million forecast. Farmer deliveries and domestic crush are both up year on year.
Strong export pace and ample supply point to continued pressure on global canola seed, oil and meal prices. Chinese demand is expected to remain steady but not enough to lift prices.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 152 past bearish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.