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Shipments from Sea of Azov ports, which normally handle about a quarter of Russian grain exports, have been at a standstill for 11 days. The halt follows Ukrainian drone strikes that damaged and sank vessels carrying grain.
Russia is offering rail subsidies to move cargo.
A major Russian export outlet being shut off removes a large share of world wheat supply and supports prices. Rail subsidies may only partly offset the loss in volume.
bloomberg.comPyotr KozlovJul 23, 2026After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
