
India's foreign exchange reserves rose $12.4 billion to a record $729.3 billion in the week ended August 21. Rainfall was 13% below normal from June 1 to August 26, with 14 states and territories recording deficits, and the government reopened wheat exports that week.
A weak monsoon raises risk to India's crop output and food inflation, which can affect Indian grain and oilseed demand and trade policy.
After 43 past macro events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -2.0% to +2.3%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 152 past macro events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.1%), and -0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.