◂ Event Timeline

Sep 2, 2026REPORTAustralia

National winter crop production forecast to fall, still the fourth-largest on record.

The ABARES crop report says Australia's winter crop production is forecast to fall from last year's bumper harvest but remain the fourth largest on record. Canola is flowering a month ahead of schedule in New South Wales.

WHY IT MATTERS

The forecast decline from last year's large harvest modestly tightens export availability for Australian grains, though the crop remains large by historical standards.

AFFECTSWheat (SRW)◆Canola Meal◆

SOURCE
abc.net.auABC Riverina: Rosie KingSep 2, 2026

Price reaction & history

Wheat (SRW)◆neutralSO FAR1d -0.4%5d +0.7%20d +2.9%

After 406 past neutral report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.

Oct 23, 2024Northern crop pushes national production above last year | Farm Online | ACT+0.3%
Sep 4, 2025ABARES says crops on target for third-largest yield on record | Farm Weekly | WA-1.3%
Mar 4, 2019Farm production expected to fall due to drought | The National Tribune+0.7%
Sep 10, 2021Harvest starts on potential 54.8m tonne winter crop for Australia - ABC News+3.6%
Apr 12, 2023The USDA raised its consumption forecast and lowered its estimate of wheat stocks, but prices continued to fall+9.0%

Canola Meal◆neutral

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Wheat (SRW) WHEAT · GP ▸

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Canola Meal CANMEAL · GP ▸

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