
EUR/USD climbed back near 1.1200 after dipping below its October 14 low, as ECB President Lagarde said a December rate hike remains likely following a unanimous hold at 2.50%. Money markets priced over 80% odds of that hike, and Euro area Q3 GDP is due Friday with 0.2% forecast.
A hawkish ECB supports the euro against the dollar, which tends to weigh on dollar-denominated commodity prices and can lift EU feed demand costs; currency moves are the main channel here for feed buyers.
After 388 past bullish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.