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USDA's October WASDE raised the corn yield to 181.2 bu/acre and production to 16.034 billion bu, adding 282 million bu to ending stocks despite higher use forecasts. The U.S. wheat crop was the smallest in more than 50 years, yet wheat ending stocks were still raised.
A larger corn crop and higher carryout weigh on feed grain prices, while the record-small wheat crop offers limited support because stocks rose. Teucrium argues that the Black Sea, El Niño, China purchases and palm oil supply are now the main price drivers outside U.S. data.
teucrium.substack.comJake HanleyOct 10, 2026After 1,102 past bearish report events, CORN moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, SOY moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 406 past neutral report events, WHEAT moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
