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Malaysian crude palm oil prices are expected to stay rangebound in the short term. Prices are then seen rising in the first half of 2027 as El Nino weighs on production and stock levels moderate.
El Nino-driven output losses in Southeast Asia would tighten palm oil supply and support vegetable oil and meal prices into 2027.
After 181 past bullish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.