
AXSMarine's November 2025 dry bulk review finds Panamax vessels carried over 960 million tonnes in 2025 so far, up 4.6% year over year. Steam coal leads cargoes, with soybeans second at over 103 million tonnes, up 4.3%.
Fertilizer volumes rose 39.5%, and the review notes residual effects of the Panama Canal drought.
Strong soybean and fertilizer Panamax volumes indicate steady ocean demand for grain and inputs, but the data reports volumes rather than a price shock. Freight impact is modest.
After 230 past neutral logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.1% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.