Atlantic Panamax freight rose about 7% from July to late September on steady soybean export demand, with Brazil to Northeast Asia up about 16%. Black Sea freight more than doubled, and in places nearly quadrupled, as strikes on ports and vessels drove prices.
Strong Brazilian soybean export pace and firm Atlantic freight support South American soy and corn pricing into Asia. Black Sea strikes shift wheat and feed grain trade toward other origins.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 206 past bullish logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.6%), and +1.4% over 20.
After 283 past bullish logistics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.3%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 285 past bullish logistics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.