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The US President issued an executive order blocking a nationwide railway strike for at least 60 days, creating a Presidential Emergency Board to review the dispute. A self-help period that could allow lockouts or strikes begins in mid-September, coinciding with harvest.
Separately, protesting truckers blocked gates at the Port of Oakland, shutting down most container movement.
A possible rail strike during harvest could disrupt grain shipments and raise freight costs, widening basis and delaying export deliveries. The risk is a meaningful logistics driver for feed grain and soymeal pricing.
doi.orgJul 21, 2022After 285 past bullish logistics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 206 past bullish logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.6%), and +1.4% over 20.
After 283 past bullish logistics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.3%), and -0.1% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
