Low Mississippi River levels expected to amplify weaker basis at harvest time

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.

After 297 past bearish logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Sep 25, 2025Low water levels return to Mississippi River as harvest season begins | Feed & Grain+0.4%
• Sep 4, 2024Low water levels on the Mississippi River impact barges and grain exports before harvest-2.0%
• Sep 10, 2024Lower Mississippi River Water Levels Falling Just as Fall Harvest Begins+0.5%
• Oct 31, 2022Low Water Levels in the Mississippi River Result in Abnormally Weak Soybean Basis+4.6%
• Aug 30, 2023Low Mississippi River level will challenge grain movement again this harvest-1.6%

After 359 past bearish logistics events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Sep 25, 2025Low water levels return to Mississippi River as harvest season begins | Feed & Grain-2.5%
• Sep 4, 2024Low water levels on the Mississippi River impact barges and grain exports before harvest-1.4%
• Sep 10, 2024Lower Mississippi River Water Levels Falling Just as Fall Harvest Begins+4.0%
• Aug 30, 2023Low Mississippi River level will challenge grain movement again this harvest-0.0%
• Aug 14, 2024Mississippi River to lower as harvests… | PB Commercial-0.7%