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Two recent studies highlight the potential economic damage from an African swine fever outbreak in the United States, including a May 2023 Iowa State working paper estimating up to $75 billion in losses. The paper projects pork prices falling 50% to 60% for three years, and a North Carolina State study finds farm-to-farm pig movements drive most transmission.
An ASF outbreak in the US would sharply cut domestic hog prices and reduce demand for feed used in pork production. The articles describe a hypothetical scenario, so the effect is a risk to price rather than an immediate move.
aasv.orgAASV StaffAug 25, 2023After 117 past bearish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
