
Malaysian palm oil futures rose on November 11, 2022, after a surge in Malaysian exports in early November and Indonesia's plan to raise its crude palm oil reference price to US$826.58 per tonne for November 16 to 30 shipments. The contract was still heading for a weekly loss.
Malaysian palm oil stocks at the end of October reached a three-year high of 2.4 million tonnes.
A higher Indonesian export tax reduces Indonesia's price discount to Malaysian palm oil, which supports Malaysian prices. Strong export flows to India and China help absorb the high stock levels.
After 133 past bullish trade events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (64% higher; middle half -0.8% to +2.3%), and +1.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.