A University of Indonesia study says raising the biodiesel blend to B50 would increase CPO demand and could push the export levy from 10% to 15.17%. The study estimates farmgate FFB prices could fall by up to Rp1,700 per kilogram.
Higher biodiesel-driven CPO demand supports palm oil prices, while a higher export levy would raise export costs and weigh on Indonesian smallholder supply over time.
After 548 past bullish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.7% to +2.1%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.