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Glenauk Economics' Julian Conway McGill warned at the IPOC 2025 conference that Indonesia's rapid move from B30 and B40 to B50 has created excessive market expectations. He said falling global diesel prices are narrowing the cost advantage of palm-based biodiesel, which raises fiscal risks.
If diesel prices stay low, biodiesel demand for palm oil may disappoint, weakening the price support that the B50 expectation has built.
palmoilmagazine.comPalmoilmagazineNov 22, 2025After 400 past bearish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
