
California's trucks and buses now use more biomass-based diesel than petroleum diesel, and renewable diesel from soybean feedstocks is on track to eliminate fossil diesel by 2030. The Air Resources Board is reviewing Low Carbon Fuel Standard rules, and environmental groups want caps on crop-based feedstock credits.
Continued LCFS support for crop-based renewable diesel sustains soybean oil demand, while any caps on crop-based credits would reduce that demand.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.