
California Air Resources Board released a Second 15-Day Notice with further proposed updates to the Low Carbon Fuel Standard, effective Q1 2025. Changes include adding sunflower oil to the 20% credit cap on virgin crop-based biofuels alongside soybean and canola oil, starting after January 2028, and quarterly rather than annual checks for the Automatic Acceleration Mechanism.
Most revisions are described as refinements without major changes.
The virgin crop oil cap limits how much soybean, canola and sunflower oil can count toward LCFS compliance, which over time could restrain demand for those oils for fuel.
After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.