
EPA announced 29 small refinery exemptions for 2025 totaling 1.76 billion RINs, well above the roughly 990 million initially indicated. EPA said it will reallocate 100% of the difference into 2026 and 2027 biofuel blending obligations and act before end of October.
The reallocation largely offsets the demand loss from exemptions, supporting RIN values and soybean oil prices, though uncertainty around the timing and details of the final rule remains.
After 356 past bullish policy events, SOY moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 842 past bullish policy events, SBO moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.