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EPA proposed restoring 770 million RINs, but a possible compliance extension would weaken the near-term demand impact. The soybean oil forward curve is in contango, with December trading 0.50 cents/lb below March.
Deferred compliance and a contango curve signal that immediate soybean oil feedstock demand is weaker than headline mandates suggest. This points to softer nearby soybean oil prices.
globalbiodiesel.comHenri BardonOct 14, 2026After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
