Falling U.S. corn prices, which hit a seven-month low on March 10, prompted a run of Chinese purchases, with USDA confirming a 204,000-tonne sale and eight purchases in nine business days. Weekly export sales to China reached 2.245 million tonnes in the week ended March 16, the third-largest weekly total on record.
Traders expect the U.S. to remain China's dominant corn supplier until Brazil's safrinha harvest in June, with Argentina's crop reduced by drought.
Chinese buying at low prices tightens nearby U.S. export supply and supports corn futures, while Argentine drought and a June Brazilian harvest set the timeline for how long the U.S. stays dominant.
After 729 past bullish trade events, Corn moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.